Washington Capitals’ Playoff Math Redux

The Washington Capitals’ season is down to the proverbial wire: one or two games remain for each of the teams in the Eastern Conference race, and that race is tighter than fitting these guys into adjacent Metro Rail seats.
The Capitals received some help last night from New Jersey, who kept Boston to just one point with a late goal, a two-point night from former Capital Dainius Zubrus, and a shootout victory.
Pittsburgh chipped in by defeating the Flyers, in regulation. It certainly helps matters that the Penguins and Canadiens are battling for the first seed. Caps fans can only hope that Pittsburgh (on 4 days’ rest) plays Philly hard in their last game–Montreal must go at least 1-0-1 to ensure the Pens’ final game matters.
Yet Carolina won handily, led by Corey LaRose’s hat trick, putting the Southeast Division title firmly within their reach.
Read on for analysis, tiebreakers, and likely finishes . . . your own predictions and comments are welcome as always.

The Playoff Picture: Eastern Bubble Teams’ Remaining Games
Team	Date	H/A	Vs.	OFB	Res	Analysis	Playoff Chances
Washington . 90 points	3/25 3/27 3/29 4/1 4/3 4/5	Away Away Away Home Home Home	Carolina Tampa Florida Carolina Tampa Bay Florida	TU LW TU TU LW TU	W W W W . .	The Cardiac Caps won their first two games in heart-rending fashion; they won their next two with dominant performances, capped by last night’s victory in a sea of red. The Caps still need help from one or more of the teams they’re chasing, and more importantly they must look at Tampa and Florida as critical–both winnable games, but Coach Boudreau is certainly driving home that a winnable game is by no means already won.	7th Seed?
Carolina . 92 points	3/25 3/28 3/29 4/1 4/2 4/4	Home Home Away Away Home Home	Washington Atlanta Tampa Bay Washington Tampa Bay Florida	TU LW LW TU TU LW	OTL W L L W .	Last week, “Suddenly the SE Division Title is no longer a foregone conclusion for Carolina.” Neither, it seems, is the making playoffs at all. But their win against Tampa puts them in good shape, and if they beat Florida the division crown is theirs. . Tiebreaker Scenario: The Caps would lose the first tiebreaker (wins), so they must exceed Carolina’s point total to win the Southeast.	SE Div Champs?
Ottawa . 92 Points	4/3 4/4	Away Home	Toronto Boston	TU TU	. .	Given the oh-so-different ways the Sens and Caps started the season, it’s stunning to think that the Caps have a chance to bump the Senators out of the post season. The Sens head to Toronto Thursday night–and you know the Leafs are looking to play spoiler. Then Ottawa finishes its season hosting Boston a mere 24 hours later. . Tiebreaker Scenario: If the Caps and Sens end with the same number of points and wins, the Caps have the tiebreaker courtesy of their season sweep of the Senators. If the Sens go 1-1 and the Caps win out (or the Sens go 0-2 and the Caps 1-1), then the Caps are in. Unlikely but possible: the Sens could lose both games and the Caps could get two OTLs, thus giving the Sens the tiebreaker.	Golf in early April?
Boston . 92 points	3/25 3/27 3/29 3/30 4/2 4/4 4/5	Away Home Home Away Away Away Home	Toronto Toronto Ottawa Buffalo NJD Ottawa Buffalo	TU LW TU TU LL TU LW	W W W OTL OTL . .	The Devils helped the Caps a bit Wednesday night, though the Bruins came away with a point. What the Caps need most from Friday’s Boston-Ottawa tilt is a regulation win for either team–and whom Caps fans root for will depend on the outcome of Ottawa’s Thursday game. A three-point Bruins-Senators bout would be terrible. . Tiebreaker Scenario: Equaling the Bruins’ point total will get the Caps into the playoffs. But with three games remaining, the Bruins must go 1-1-0 or worse for the Caps to catch them.	6th Seed?
Buffalo . 88 points	3/25 3/27 3/28 3/30 4/1 4/3 4/5	Home Away Home Home Away Away Away	Ottawa Ottawa Montreal Boston Toronto Montreal Boston	TU LL LL TU TU LL LL	L W OTL W W . .	Last week: “4 of 5 against Montreal and Boston likely spells the end of their run unless Ryan Miller notches a couple shutouts.” An impressive 3-1-1 effort in the past five games has kept Buffalo alive, but with the number of teams ahead of them the Sabres will fall short of the playoffs this year.	Done
Philadelphia . 91 points	3/25 3/28 3/29 4/2 4/4 4/6	Away Away Away Away Home Home	NYR NJD NYI Pittsburgh NJD Pittsburgh	LL TU LW LL TU TU	W OTL W L . .	Painful, but true: Capitals fans must root for Pittsburgh on the last day of the season. Though Philly finishes at home, the Devils are trying to stave off the Rangers to keep 4th and Pittsburgh is chasing the conference title. Tiebreaker Scenario: Like the Bruins, equaling Philly’s point total will get the Caps into the playoffs. The Flyers must go 1-0-1 or worse to stay within the Caps’ reach.	8th Seed?